Don Paul's forecast: Holiday weekend starts damp, then improves; plus, state of the climate (2024)

As cooler and drier air began filtering in from the north Wednesday following Buffalo’s fourth 90-degree day of the summer (the other three were in June), it turns out much of Western New York missed out on significant rain ahead of the cold front. It’s been since early last week when any widespread rain has fallen, but in the last Drought Monitor there was no evidence of drought or abnormally dry conditions.

No doubt late plantings could stand some watering, with most of Tuesday night’s sparse coverage convection confined to locations closer to the Pennsylvania line. Buffalo’s monthly rainfall is running .71-inch below average thus far, and the monthly mean temperature is just 0.3 degree above average. Current indications are the month will finish close to average for temperatures, with every month since last December having been warmer than average. We’ll have one additional shot at more widespread convective shower coverage before the month ends.

Thursday will bring comfortable temperatures and humidity to the Niagara Frontier, under a partly to mostly sunny sky, with more clouds and a chance for a few spotty showers in the Southern Tier.

Highs will range from the low to mid-70s closer to the Pennsylvania line to the upper 70s farther north.

The bad news for the start of the holiday weekend is the slowing of an area of low pressure and its frontal boundaries approaching the Great Lakes on Friday. This will mean a delayed start to scattered convection during late Friday and a slower exit for the showers on Saturday. Friday will be partly sunny, turning a little warmer and more humid.

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage later during a muggy Friday evening. On Saturday, the slowed passage of a cold front spells a lengthier period for scattered and occasional showers and thunderstorms into at least early afternoon.

A few stronger storms south and east of the metro area can’t be ruled out. The convection should exit from northwest to southeast by later in the afternoon, allowing a drier air mass to enter our region.

Sunday will be mostly to partly sunny and breezy with a high reaching the upper 70s. However, a passing second cold front may trigger a few brief showers in the afternoon during an otherwise mostly dry day. The showers will cross the region from northwest to southeast just ahead of the reinforcing cold front.

Labor Day, behind the front, will be dominated by a cool Canadian high pressure ridge, bringing a mostly to partly sunny sky and a fairly brisk northwest breeze.

High temps will be around 10 degrees below average, only reaching the mid- to upper 60s. The Buffalo Lake Erie temperature is now at 71 degrees, 1 degree below average, following the dissipation of the early summer stored excess lake warmth.

For boaters, Sunday will bring 2-3 foot waves on Lake Erie and 2-4 feet on Lake Ontario. Waves should be down a bit for Labor Day, to 1-3 feet, though still occasionally choppy.

The below-average temperatures Monday-Wednesday should help cool down classrooms as school begins, as custodial staffs hopefully get those windows open early on Tuesday.

Looking into the extended range, readings will become seasonable by late next week, returning to the mid- and upper 70s. Upper level warm high pressure ridging is showing to remain anchored in the West in the model ensembles by next Friday.

This type of pattern would preclude any excessive heat rebuilding in the Great Lakes. Even during the following week, there are currently no hints of anything more than seasonable warmth in the Great Lakes, rather than hot weather.

NOAA’s look at the state of the climate through 2023

Globally, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration determined 2023 was the warmest year on record dating back to the mid- to late 1800s. Even before a vigorous El Nino exerted its natural influence, temperatures began spiking during the previous winter and spring in the oceans, on the land and in the air. The ongoing accelerated warming is directly tied to human activity and emitted greenhouse gases. Since the Industrial Revolution, carbon dioxide is up 50%, methane is up 166% and nitrous oxide is up 25%. A byproduct greenhouse gas, water vapor, is also significantly up due to increased evaporation tied to global warming.

Although the now-departed El Nino gave its boost to 2023 yearly warming in the year’s second half, the overall trend of accelerated warming goes back further in time. As NOAA reported, “All seven major global temperature datasets used for analysis in the report agree that the last nine years (2015–2023) were the nine warmest on record.”

Other key NOAA findings:

• “Earth’s greenhouse gas concentrations were the highest on record. Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide ⁠– Earth’s major atmospheric greenhouse gases⁠ – once again reached record high concentrations in 2023.”

• “On August 22, 2023, an all-time high globally averaged daily sea-surface temperature of 66.18 degrees F (18.99 degrees C) was recorded. Approximately 94% of the ocean surface experienced at least one marine heatwave in 2023, which is defined as sea-surface temperatures in the warmest 10% of all recorded data in a particular location on that day for at least five days.”

• “Global mean sea level was record high for the 12th-consecutive year, reaching about 4.0 inches (101.4 millimeters) above the 1993 average (when satellite altimetry measurements began).”

• “Heatwaves and droughts contributed to massive wildfires around the world. During late spring and a record-warm summer, approximately 37 million acres burned across Canada, an area more than twice the size of Ireland and more than double the previous record from 1989. Nearly 232,000 people were evacuated due to the threat of wildfires, and smoke from the wildfires affected regions across Canada, the heavily populated cities of New York City and Chicago and even areas of western Europe.”

• “The Arctic was warm and navigable. The Arctic had its fourth-warmest year in the 124-year record, with summer (July to September) being record warm. The seasonal Arctic minimum sea-ice extent, typically reached in September, was the fifth-smallest in the 45-year record. The amount of multiyear ice – ice that survives at least one summer melt season in the Arctic – continued to decline. Since 2012, the Arctic has been nearly devoid of ice that is more than four years old.

Antarctic sea ice set record lows throughout 2023. Eight months saw new monthly mean record lows in sea ice extent (coverage) and sea ice area, and 278 days in 2023 set new daily record-low sea ice extents. On February 21, 2023, Antarctic sea ice extent and sea ice area both reached all-time record lows, surpassing the previous record lows that were set just a year earlier in February 2022.